Traditionally, the point estimate method has been used through cost-benefit analysis to clarify uncertainties in planning a decision. Because all projects are vulnerable to varying degrees of uncertainty regarding cost, schedule, and price of production, traditional deterministic cost-benefit analysis does not provide sufficient information. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation method is commonly used to measure value at risk (VaR). Value at risk and Monte Carlo simulationVaR is a methodology developed by the financial industry to provide quantitative data to support a company's exposure to risk. VaR measures the worst expected loss over a given horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. In other words, if you select “c” as the confidence level, the VaR corresponds to the “1-c” lower tail of the expected distribution of profits and losses over the target horizon. In other words, we are c% certain that we will not lose more than V dollars in the next N